By JAMES K. FITZPATRICK
I spent some time before writing this column looking for a modern way of stating the logical error of “post hoc, ergo propter hoc” reasoning. Considering the modern world’s disdain for Latin terms coined by medieval theologians, I was sure there would be some version in modern English, along the lines of the substitution of Common Era (CE) for Anno Domini (AD). But I didn’t find it. Writers and journalists seem content to use the old term “a post hoc error.”
But whether English or Latin is used, it is important to introduce students to this faulty logic. Charlatans and demagogues have been known to employ it to make their case. You can count, for example, on every administration in office attributing a drop in the unemployment rate to their economic policies, while at the same time pointing to some policy of their predecessor for anything that goes wrong.
“Post hoc, ergo propter hoc” means literally “after this therefore because of this.” It is an unsound presumption. It is illogical to hold that because B follows A, A caused B. Sequence does not establish a probability of causation, not by itself. Chance or some other factor could be the explanation. Coincidences occur. Because you wore red socks the day you passed your math exam does not mean the socks were the cause of your success. Because you had a rabbit’s foot in your pocket when you hit a home run does not mean the rabbit’s foot was the explanation for your batting prowess. There is no reason to assume that A caused B in these examples.
On the other hand, if you got a successful grade after spending many hours studying, or made the football team after working out with weights and running long distances all summer, your preparation was likely to be a cause of your success. A controlled study is required to establish causation, one that rules out variables and coincidence.
Common Core, the federal government’s attempt to establish standards for the nation’s schools, is controversial for many reasons. A debate over causation can be added to the list. It seems as if there has been an uptick on certain standardized tests in New York State, and advocates of Common Core are attributing the improvement to the introduction of Common Core two years ago.
An article by Kristin DeCarr, on the August 21 edition of the website Education News (educationnews.org), provides the details. “New York State elementary and middle school students are doing increasingly better on statewide math exams, while no change can be seen in reading exam scores,” writes DeCarr. “The State Education Department reported 36 percent of students across the state passing the math exam, an increase from last year’s 31 percent. The results of the reading exams remained the same from last year, with 31 percent passing statewide.”
Is Common Core responsible for the uptick? “This is the second year the state has administered tests in-line with Common Core standards,” DeCarr observes. Common Core places “a higher emphasis on critical analysis and problem solving, rather than simple memorization, in the exams given each year between grades 3 through 8 each April. As one of the first states to implement the Common Core testing, New York saw a sharp backlash after the first year of testing saw a sharp drop in test scores. The last year of the previous testing saw 55 percent of students pass the reading test and 65 percent pass math. The teachers unions blamed the lower scores on improperly trained educators, while parents thought the exams were simply too difficult.”
Responding to union pressure, according to DeCarr, the “state legislature passed a bill in June that would deny teachers from being punished based solely on student scores. . . . Alice Brown, an official in the Department of Education’s Office of Teaching and Learning, stated that of the students who scored a level 1 (the lowest level on the exam), there were 5 percent less this year than last year. Also showing improvements were minority students and special education students.”
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio was quick to react. He pointed to the rising test scores as a sign of progress, declaring them “good news. It’s very nice to have a moment we can celebrate some good, but it is never a moment to rest on our laurels. It’s only a chance to reload and go deeper because we have a lot of work ahead,” said de Blasio.
DeCarr adds, “De Blasio hopes to see scores increase even more next year as teachers receive more training and parents become more involved. He would like to see ‘100 percent proficiency for our children’.”
So should Common Core get the credit? Maybe. Maybe not. Before we can attribute causation to an event we must establish more than sequence. We must first eliminate coincidence. A one-year uptick in scores proves little. Math scores improved in New York, but reading scores did not. Should we blame Common Core for the lackluster performance on the reading tests? Last year, scores in math and reading declined from the previous year. Should we blame that on Common Core, which had been established the year before?
If one were to go back over the past decade or two, one can find instances when standardized test scores yo-yoed, up one year, down the next. Giving credit to Common Core for this year’s uptick requires a broader sample, a pattern over an extended number of years. How many years? I’ll leave that to those who are proficient in these studies, and without an ideological axe to grind. But a one-year sample is not enough.
If we are to point to Common Core as the cause of this year’s improvement in math scores, we must also eliminate variables. Such as? Changes in the quality and level of experience of the teachers would be one possibility.
Also changes in demographics. Teachers unions are quick to attribute poor student performance to the number of newly arrived immigrant children with English as their second language. Might something along those lines be responsible for this year’s uptick? Could it be that the immigrant children are becoming more proficient in English because of longer residence in the country, rather than excelling because of Common Core? Might it be that a significant number of illegal immigrant children have left New York City’s schools and returned to their native countries because their parents could not find work during our current economic downturn?
I am certain that readers of this column could come up with other possibilities.
I don’t know if any of the above is a factor in this year’s uptick, but they must be taken into account before jumping to the conclusion that Common Core has been a success in New York. The point is not to bash Common Core, only that flimsily evidence for its success be seen for what it is.
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Readers are invited to submit comments and questions about this and other educational issues. The e-mail address for First Teachers is fitzpatrijames@sbcglobal.net, and the mailing address is P.O. Box 15, Wallingford CT 06492.
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