By BARBARA SIMPSON
There is nowhere you can go these days without getting immersed in politics — which is, I guess, the nature of things. The biggest speculation has to do with the presidency — will Joe Biden run again? — will Donald Trump run again? If not them, who?
Neither man has given an answer for certain, though there are hints from both political parties. It is an issue that keeps the pollsters busy and for the state of California, that is a way of life.
The latest poll to get big headlines was released the past week and was conducted in California by the U.C. Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. It was conducted August 9-15, among 9,254 registered voters, in English and Spanish.
The conclusion? Of Republican voters there, 87 percent, do not want President Joseph Biden to run again. Among Democrats, the vote is evenly split: 46 percent opposed and 46 percent in favor.
Biden’s approval rating nationally a year ago was below 50 percent, but this year it has slipped below 40 percent. He is facing political disputes concerning inflation, high gas prices, the oil supply situation, climate change issues, prescription drug prices, and U.S. manufacturing issues — to say nothing of dealing with Russia and the war. No doubt, it is a full plate of problems.
With figures so close, and the theme seemingly in favor of another name on the ballot, the question is, who should/would that be?
The poll asked people that question — their preferences for the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination if Biden doesn’t run.
In first place was Gavin Newsom, the current governor of California. Second was Bernie Sanders, third was Kamala Harris, fourth was Pete Buttigieg, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Stacey Adams, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Michael Bloomberg, Gretchen Whitmer, and others.
You can tell from that list that if Biden doesn’t run, the battle for the nomination will be long, detailed, and costly with all those people vying for the nomination.
The support for Newsom will keep political experts in a tizzy. He beat back a state recall attempt last year and has yet to say that he is interested in the presidential nomination. Despite that, the “fact” that he is interested is a meme that has followed him through his entire political career. Mention Newsom in California, and the reaction is that he’d like to be a senator, but he wants to be president.
While he has never actually declared that ambition, he has done things to move it along. Just recently he has taken out political ads in Florida and Texas which rivaled the governors of those states who clearly have their eyes on the White House. The issues he addressed there challenged the positions of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on gun control and abortion.
State political experts are convinced that if Biden doesn’t run, the political battle in the state will be a dogfight! The odds are against his running and age is the main factor. He is 79 and is the oldest American president. If he were to run for a second term, he would be 82 years old. It’s an issue for him although he has not addressed it in public. But it’s also an issue for the party and, no doubt, it will be an issue for all Americans.
The results of the poll show that the state’s choice after Biden is Gavin Newsom and after him, perhaps Kamala Harris. Newsom has a strong following and a good approval rating. Harris does not, and she loses support with each passing day. Regardless of what happens, it will be an expensive battle royale!
As for the possible Republican nominee, strong support continues for Donald Trump — 66 percent — even though a large number do not want him to run again. He has not committed to a decision as of this moment, though it seems certain he will say “yes.”
Time and politics will tell, as they always do.
Who might be the GOP candidate if Trump doesn’t run? When Californians were given a list of possible GOP candidates — 38 percent chose Trump and 27 percent supported DeSantis.
If Trump chose not to run, DeSantis led the field with 53 percent of the voters.
At this point, the revelations following the raid on the president’s home in Florida don’t seem to have had a strong impact on voters’ choices. If they liked Donald Trump, they still do and will vote for him.
On the other hand, it’s a long while yet until the nominations and a lot can (and will) happen until then.
The criticisms of Biden are wide ranging. The increasingly fragile situation with Russa is not something to be ignored. The war in Ukraine is on the edge of spilling over into Europe and the aggressive attitude of Vladimir Putin cannot be ignored either. This is not something that Biden can ignore even as we continue to supply Ukraine with modern weapons to defend themselves against Russian aggression.
We know how Biden is handling the international situation, but we have no idea how any of the other Democratic possibilities would deal with the challenges. The possible candidates are so far steering clear of discussing international issues and it appears that the one issue they are brave enough to deal with is “climate change.” How that will play out in an open political campaign remains to be seen.
Our country — along with most of the world — is dealing with a massive drought. The effect of the lack of rain is still not clear, but there is no doubt that it will affect the economy and health issues for years. Gavin Newsom has made the environment one of his major talking points, but he has not admitted that he has no real solution on how to face and deal with the problems.
Californians love to argue about the environment, but if truth be known, none of them have any solutions for what we are facing, which is the possibility of a major environmental disaster.
For that, it doesn’t matter whether you are a Democrat or a Republican.
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